Indian equity
markets ended in green in a highly volatile trade on Thursday amid a fag-end
recovery due to buying in Power, PSU and Basic Materials stocks. The markets
opened on a flat note and consolidated for most part of the day amid the
scheduled monthly expiry of derivative contracts. Investors also eagerly
awaited India's Q4 GDP data to be out later in the day. Some concern also came
with a report by SBI Research stating that the Indian economy is likely to grow
at 6.7-6.9 per cent in December quarter FY24 as compared to 7.6 per cent growth
in the second quarter on poor performance in the farm sector. Traders also
remained worried as Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade
(DPIIT) in its latest data showed that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
in India declined 13 per cent to $32.03 billion in April-December 2023, dragged
down by lower infusion in computer hardware and software, telecom, auto, and
pharma sectors. FDI inflows stood at $36.74 billion during the corresponding
nine months of the preceding fiscal. Adding to the pessimism, the provisional
data from the NSE showed foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares
worth Rs 1,879.23 crore on February 28, 2024. However, some buoyancy emerged by
the end of the day, as traders found solace with economic think tank National
Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) in report stating that high
frequency indicators reveal that the Indian economy remains resilient with
Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) for services accelerating and manufacturing
regaining momentum. Some support also came with Minister of Petroleum &
Natural Gas and Housing & Urban Affairs Hardeep Singh Puri's statement that
India has emerged more resilient at a time when advanced economies are
struggling to bounce back from the devastating impacts of the pandemic and
added that India is already the fifth-largest economy in the world, and soon
will become the third-largest economy. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 195.42
points or 0.27% to 72,500.30 and the CNX Nifty was up by 31.65 points or 0.14%
to 21,982.80.
The US markets ended higher on
Thursday with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs.
Some support came in following the release of a highly anticipated Commerce
Department report showing consumer prices in the U.S. increased in line with
street estimates in the month of January. The Commerce Department said consumer
prices rose by 0.3 percent in January after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent
in December. Street had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent
compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.
Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices climbed by 0.4 percent
in January after edging up by a revised 0.1 percent in December. The increase
in core prices also matched estimates. Meanwhile, the report said the annual
rate of consumer price growth slowed to 2.4 percent in January from 2.6 percent
in December. The slowdown matched expectations. The annual rate of core
consumer price growth also slowed to 2.8 percent in January from 2.9 percent in
December, in line with estimates. The inflation readings are said to be favored
by the Federal Reserve, and the data generated some optimism about the outlook
for interest rates. On the economic data front, the Labor Department released a
report showing a bigger than expected increase in weekly jobless claims, while
a report from the National Association of Realtors unexpectedly showed a sharp
pullback by pending home sales in January.
Crude oil futures ended lower for
second straight session on Thursday, as concerns about reduced fuel demand
weighed on prices, outweighing hopes about the likely extension of production
cuts by OPEC and its allies. Recent data from the Energy Information
Administration (EIA) showing a larger than expected increase in crude
inventories in the U.S. weighed as well. Data showing a slowdown in the annual
rate of consumer price growth in January has generated some optimism about the
outlook for interest rates. Persisting concerns about supply disruptions due to
the tensions in the Middle East limited oil's downside. Benchmark crude oil
futures for April delivery fell $0.28 or about 0.40% to settle at $78.26 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for April delivery was
down by $0.44 or 0.55% to $81.71 per barrel on London's Intercontinental
Exchange.
Indian rupee ended flat on
Thursday. Traders were cautious as Department for Promotion of Industry and
Internal Trade (DPIIT) in its latest data has showed that foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows in India declined 13 per cent to $32.03 billion in
April-December 2023, dragged down by lower infusion in computer hardware and
software, telecom, auto, and pharma sectors. FDI inflows stood at $36.74 billion
during the corresponding nine months of the preceding fiscal. Meanwhile, some
concern came with a report by SBI Research stating that the Indian economy is
likely to grow at 6.7-6.9 per cent in December quarter FY24 as compared to 7.6
per cent growth in the second quarter on poor performance in the farm sector.
On the global front, dollar tracked toward monthly gains on Thursday ahead of
highly-anticipated inflation data that could ruffle the interest rate outlook,
while the sliding yen found a footing after a policymaker hinted at the need to
exit ultra-easy policies. Finally, the rupee ended flat with its previous close
of 82.91 on Wednesday.
The FIIs as per Thursday's data
were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 11385.40 crore against gross
selling of Rs 12774.14 crore, while in the debt segment, the gross purchase was
of Rs 2127.42 crore with gross sales of Rs 1283.21 crore. Besides, in the
hybrid segment, the gross buying was of Rs 74.69 crore against gross selling of
Rs 63.30 crore.
The US markets ended higher on Thursday
after PCE inflation rose 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis, in line with
expectations. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Friday despite
Japan's factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in over three-and-a-half
years in February, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, as weakening
demand worsened the economic outlook. Indian markets witnessed strong
volatility oscillating between gains and losses and settled with marginal gains
on Thursday as investors adjusted their positions ahead of the February F&O
expiry. Today, markets are likely to get an optimistic start of the new month
reacting to the broadly positive cues from global markets as well as India's
encouraging GDP growth data. India's Q3 GDP registered a higher-than-expected
8.4 per cent growth largely led by government capex spending. On the back of
good performance by the sectors such as construction, mining & quarrying
and manufacturing, India's economic growth has witnessed significant upswing.
Also, the National Statistical Office (NSO), which releases the data, revised
upwards FY24 growth estimate to 7.6 per cent from the 7.3 per cent projected in
January. Foreign fund inflows likely to aid sentiments. Foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 3,568.11 crore on February 29,
provisional data from the NSE showed. Traders will be taking encouragement as
Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said India's post-pandemic robust
economic momentum will continue for the fourth year in a row with a likely 7%
expansion in the next financial year. He added the growth will be supported by
an expected normal monsoon, better rural demand, improved private and public
investment. Some support will come as retail inflation for industrial workers
eased to 4.59 per cent in January compared to 4.91 per cent in December 2023
mainly due to lower prices of certain food items. Food inflation stood at 7.66
per cent in January 2024 against 8.18 per cent in December 2023. Besides, the
Centre has approved the release of two installments of tax devolution amounting
to Rs 1.42 lakh crore to 28 states to bolster their ability to fund various
social welfare and infrastructure development schemes. However, there may be
some cautiousness as the government data showed that India's core sector
output, which measures production by eight key industries, grew by 3.6 per cent
in January, a 15-month low. A lower growth of 0.7 per cent was recorded in
October 2022. Meanwhile, the Centre's fiscal deficit came in at 63.6% of the
revised estimate (RE) in the first ten months of the current financial year
compared with 67.8% of the respective target in the year-ago period, largely
due to a decline in spending in January while tax revenues remained on track.
Auto stocks will be in focus reacting to their monthly sales numbers. There will be some reaction in stocks related
to agriculture sector as the agriculture ministry said production of food
grains in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) is estimated to decline by 6% to
309.34 million tonne (MT), from 329 MT in previous crop year, because of
decline in rice and pulses output. Oil & gas sector stocks will be in
limelight as the government hiked its windfall tax on petroleum crude to Rs
4,600 per ton from Rs 3,300 with effect from March 1. Windfall tax on diesel
has been cut to zero from 1.50 per litre.
Support and
Resistance: NSE (Nifty) and BSE (Sensex)
Index
|
Previous close
|
Support
|
Resistance
|
NSE
Nifty
|
21,982.80
|
21,875.45
|
22,075.35
|
BSE
Sensex
|
72,500.30
|
72,156.42
|
72,787.10
|
Nifty Top volumes
Stock
|
Volume
|
Previous close (Rs)
|
Support (Rs)
|
Resistance (Rs)
|
(in Lacs)
|
Power
Grid
|
350.43
|
283.75
|
277.10
|
287.70
|
Tata
Steel
|
322.48
|
141.60
|
140.05
|
142.50
|
HDFC
Bank
|
266.48
|
1407.80
|
1399.94
|
1413.04
|
ICICI
Bank
|
209.45
|
1054.95
|
1042.06
|
1064.26
|
State
Bank of India
|
192.17
|
753.00
|
742.14
|
758.89
|
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of ManpowerGroup's largest data centre in Europe to Microsoft Azure.
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efficiency and security for global businesses.
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wholly-owned subsidiary -- JSW Green Steel -- in Mumbai.
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Commercial Operation of Unit 2 (800 MW) of Telangana STPP, Stage-I (2x800 MW)
with effect from March 1, 2024.